Is the 'Roaring Twenties' AI Boom Literally a New Economic Bubble?

You call it a revolution? I call it a rerun. The same script, the same hype, the same fatal mistake. You point to revenue and contracts, but so did the dot-com bubble. Cisco had real revenue, real products, and a 200% stock surge before it lost 80% of its value. The 'new economy' fallacy is a siren song, and you're all singing along. The AI boom is not a revolution; it's a speculative mania dressed in a neural network. The valuations are detached from any rational earnings projection. NVIDIA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio that would make Alan Greenspan blush. This isn't pricing in future growth; it's pricing in a future that may never arrive. The AI models are hitting diminishing returns, the energy costs are astronomical, and the promised 'general intelligence' remains a distant fantasy. You're not investing in a technology; you're investing in a narrative. You tout the 'Magnificent Seven' and their cash flows, but that's a red flag, not a green light. Concentrated market cap in a handful of stocks is a classic sign of a bubble top. In 2000, the top five tech stocks were 18% of the S&P 500; today, that number is even higher. This is not a healthy market; it's a house of cards. When the AI hype falters—and it will—these giants will fall, and they'll take the entire economy with them. The 'land grab' you celebrate is actually a debt-fueled capex orgy. These companies are borrowing billions to build data centers that may become obsolete in five years. You're not building a war chest; you're building a monument to your own hubris. And your historical analogy is a self-inflicted wound. Yes, the internet survived the bubble, but 78% of dot-com companies went bankrupt. The survivors were the exception, not the rule. or every Amazon, there were a hundred Boo.coms. The same will happen with AI. Most of these 'AI' startups are wrappers around OpenAI's API, with no moat and no business model. They'll be wiped out. The 'core infrastructure' you worship will be a graveyard of overbuilt capacity. The market is not pricing in a revolution; it's pricing in a lottery ticket. And the house always wins. So go ahead, ride the wave. But remember, when the tide goes out, we'll see who's been swimming naked. You call me a doom-predictor, but I'm just a historian with a calculator.