Borders or Groceries? Ukraine Blows Up Peace

This analysis by legal scholars at the European Journal of International Law argues that Ukraine's strikes on Russian military targets, such as logistics hubs and command centers, are lawful under Article 51 of the UN Charter. It cites that self-defense extends to targeting the aggressor's military infrastructure that directly supports the invasion, especially when Russia uses its own territory as a staging ground for attacks on Ukrainian cities. The piece highlights that the International Court of Justice has consistently upheld a state's right to respond proportionately to an ongoing armed attack, and notes that Ukraine's strikes have been focused on degrading Russia's offensive capacity, not on civilian areas, thus distinguishing them from indiscriminate aggression.

A detailed report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) provides evidence that Ukraine's long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian oil refineries and fuel depots, particularly in the Rostov and Saratov regions, have reduced Russia's refined fuel supply by approximately 12% in the first half of 2024. The report argues that these strikes are strategically effective, forcing Russia to divert resources to air defense and repair, thereby slowing its offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. RUSI experts conclude that such strikes are a legitimate form of defense-by-denial, directly weakening the invader's ability to sustain its campaign without escalating to nuclear use, as Russia has not responded with WMDs despite its rhetoric.

This Reuters investigation documents that while Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea corridor have reached 40 million tonnes since August 2023, this success is directly tied to a de facto arrangement where Ukraine refrained from striking Russian naval assets in the Black Sea. The report quotes a senior UN official warning that any Ukrainian deep strike on Russian territory near the corridor could trigger immediate Russian retaliation against the ports, halting exports and causing a global food price spike, as seen in 2022. It cites data from the World ood Programme showing that 45% of wheat imports for East African nations come from Ukraine, making the corridor's stability a life-or-death issue for millions, thus arguing that continued strikes risk a catastrophic 'groceries' crisis.

A Strategic Studies Quarterly (SSQ) article by former US State Department officials argues that Ukraine's deep strikes into Russian territory, such as the November 2024 attack on a Russian airbase in Kursk, violate the 'unwritten rules' of escalation control that have prevented a direct NATO-Russia conflict. The paper cites declassified intelligence showing that Russia's military doctrine includes 'escalate to de-escalate' protocols, where conventional attacks on its homeland could prompt a limited nuclear demonstration. It also notes that Russian officials have explicitly threatened to target NATO supply lines in Poland if Ukraine uses Western-supplied missiles on Russian soil, which would trigger Article 5. The authors conclude that the 'grain keeps flowing' only because Russia has not felt existential threats, but continued strikes risk a miscalculation that could end global food trade and spark World War III.